APPLICATION OF THE PROSPECTIVE STRATEGY IN THE VALUE PROPOSITION OF AN ASSOCIATE DEGREE INSTITUTION

Abstract

The preparation of strategic plans is vital to organizations, since the increasing degree of uncertainty forces them to no longer rely solely on forecasts that consider history and extrapolate data. It is necessary to contemplate, in addition to these trends, others that manifest themselves signaling different aspects in the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal areas. It is in this context that this study analyzes the results of conventional forecasts (forecast), comparing them with a prospective methodology (foresight), used as a subsidy to the strategic plan of an Institution of Higher Education. In the first instance, using the conventional forecasting methodology (forecast) and starting from historical data, it was noted the negative exponential trend in the chosen indicator. In the second instance, the prospective methodology (foresight) was used. The transforming forces (drivers) obtained by the Delphi technique were considered in the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA), through a curve impacted for a five-year future horizon. To obtain data with accurate confidence levels, the Monte Carlo simulation was used, which uses random numbers for probability distribution; while the uncertainty and impact matrix, the futures wheel and the scenario analysis contributed to the analysis. The results were promising, envisioning possible futures to be included and discussed in a strategic plan, composing, with the existing forecasting tools, a credible and complete approach.